Santa Clara

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	264.0
Current RPI:	264
Expected SOS:	196
Current SOS:	196
Current Record:	10-19
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-5
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	340
Expected OOC SOS:	285

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	264.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Santa Clara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	63-93	L	0%
11-18	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	59-63	L	0%
11-22	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	N	59-69	L	0%
11-25	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	N	59-73	L	0%
11-30	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	89-57	W	100%
12-2	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	72-57	W	100%
12-9	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	84-87	L	0%
12-14	USC (34.0)	P12	A	82-59	L	0%
12-18	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	68-76	L	0%
12-21	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	63-75	L	0%
12-28	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	72-65	W	100%
12-30	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	101-52	L	0%
1-4	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	49-65	W	100%
1-6	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	70-68	W	100%
1-11	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	57-81	L	0%
1-13	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	50-84	L	0%
1-18	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	62-65	W	100%
1-20	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	60-75	L	0%
1-25	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	66-58	L	0%
1-27	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	59-73	W	100%
2-1	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	45-63	L	0%
2-3	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	59-70	L	0%
2-8	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	80-58	L	0%
2-10	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	70-64	W	100%
2-15	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	72-81	W	100%
2-17	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	68-72	W	100%
2-22	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	64-65	L	0%
2-24	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	67-40	L	0%
3-2	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	N	69-85	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Santa Clara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Santa Clara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Santa Clara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Santa Clara	WCC	26.41	26.41	31.85	31.85	-9.59	-9.59
Pepperdine	WCC	6.13	6.13	14.29	14.29	-4.38	-4.38
Gonzaga	WCC	4.55	4.55	87.50	87.50	3.41	3.41
Saint Mary's	WCC	4.55	4.55	83.87	83.87	3.08	3.08
BYU	WCC	4.55	4.55	68.75	68.75	1.71	1.71
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.51	4.51	32.14	32.14	-1.61	-1.61
San Francisco	WCC	4.51	4.51	53.33	53.33	0.30	0.30
Portland	WCC	4.49	4.49	25.93	25.93	-2.16	-2.16
San Diego	WCC	4.48	4.48	57.14	57.14	0.64	0.64
Pacific	WCC	4.48	4.48	41.38	41.38	-0.77	-0.77
San Jose St.	MWC	1.94	1.94	7.14	7.14	-1.67	-1.67
Portland St.	BSky	1.93	1.93	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
Idaho	BSky	1.92	1.92	67.86	67.86	0.69	0.69
Nevada	MWC	1.92	1.92	78.79	78.79	1.11	1.11
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.87	1.87	13.79	13.79	-1.35	-1.35
Cal Poly	BW	1.84	1.84	21.43	21.43	-1.05	-1.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.78	1.78	41.18	41.18	-0.31	-0.31
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.75	1.75	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	1.72	1.72	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
Valparaiso	MVC	1.72	1.72	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.34	0.34	16.67	16.67	-0.23	-0.23
UC Riverside	BW	0.31	0.31	24.14	24.14	-0.16	-0.16
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.31	0.31	70.00	70.00	0.12	0.12
Weber St.	BSky	0.30	0.30	60.71	60.71	0.07	0.07
Southern Utah	BSky	0.29	0.29	36.67	36.67	-0.08	-0.08
Utah St.	MWC	0.27	0.27	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.26	0.26	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.25	0.25	62.07	62.07	0.06	0.06
UC Davis	BW	0.25	0.25	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	73.33	73.33	0.09	0.09
Long Beach St.	BW	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.20	0.20	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
UNLV	MWC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.18	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
California	P12	0.16	0.16	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.14	0.14	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Montana St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.14	0.14	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
UT Arlington	SB	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	83.33	83.33	0.09	0.09
Fresno St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	12.50	12.50	-0.09	-0.09
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.12	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00